French Hill Highlights Clarity Act as 2026 Passage Odds Hit 15%

House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill (R-AR) renewed his push for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) during a Sept. 2 hearing on capital markets, even as prediction-market traders assign only a 15% probability that the landmark crypto market structure bill will become law by the end of 2026. The low odds reflect deep skepticism about the legislative timeline, despite strong bipartisan committee support and a potential Senate floor vote as early as Sept. 15. Polymarket Traders Bet Against Fast-track Enactment A Polymarket contract tracking the 2026 enactment of the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) shows a 15% chance that the bill will pass both chambers and receive the president’s signature by Dec. 31, 2026. Trading volume on the contract has reached approximately $11.62 million. The probability, which rose from 13% in late August, remains heavily weighted against passage this year. The market’s skepticism contrasts with Chairman Hill’s characterization of the bill as a key committee accomplishment. In his prepared remarks for the Sept. 2 hearing on growth, affordability, innovation, and access to capital, Hill listed the House passage of the CLARITY Act among the committee’s achievements and called for “permanent, predictable financial rules” to replace the current patchwork of regulatory guidance. Kalshi Shows Longer-term Optimism, but Not Directly Comparable Kalshi’s longer-dated contracts offer a broader measure of legislative success. The platform gives the CLARITY Act - or another qualifying crypto market structure bill - a 30% chance of becoming law before July 1, 2027, and a 50% probability before Jan. 1, 2028. Volume on Kalshi totals approximately $6.85 million. However, these contracts cannot be directly compared with Polymarket’s 2026-specific contract because they measure a more expansive outcome window. The latest figures indicate that traders already distinguish between procedural progress and final passage. By Aug. 31, the market had assigned strong odds to a Senate vote but much weaker probabilities to the bill becoming law during 2026. Next Milestone: Senate Cloture Vote on Sept. 15 The next measurable step in the legislative process is a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act. The official Senate schedule states that the cloture motion on proceeding to H.R. 3633 will ripen at 2:15 p.m. on Sept. 15. Cloture generally requires 60 votes, placing the bill’s future on its ability to retain bipartisan support. The proposal has already demonstrated cross-party appeal at earlier stages. The Senate Banking Committee advanced H.R. 3633 by a 15-9 vote on May 14, moving it toward floor consideration. Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego (AZ) and Angela Alsobrooks (MD) joined Republicans in supporting advancement, although committee approval did not establish sufficient support for cloture or final passage. Prediction Market Contract Focus Probability Volume Key Date Polymarket CLARITY Act enacted by Dec. 31, 2026 15% $11.62M 2026 year-end Kalshi CLARITY Act or qualifying crypto bill before July 1, 2027 30% $6.85M (total) July 2027 Kalshi Same bill before Jan. 1, 2028 50% Included above Jan. 2028 Revised Legislation Adds Complexity to Timeline Senate negotiators subsequently released revised legislation combining work from the Banking and Agriculture committees. The updated CLARITY Act framework addresses: SEC and CFTC jurisdiction over digital assets Consumer protection and customer asset custody rules Illicit finance and anti-money laundering provisions Decentralized finance (DeFi) oversight Intermediary oversight and disclosure requirements Specified network tokens and their classification The revised language creates another timing consideration that is reflected in the low 2026 odds. Senate approval of provisions differing from the House-passed measure could require further conference committee action before the bill reaches the president. The Polymarket contract pays out only if H.R. 3633 completes every remaining step - including any reconciliation - by the end of 2026. Regulatory Context: Permanent Rules Vs. Enforcement Guidance Chairman Hill has consistently framed the CLARITY Act as a necessary shift from the current enforcement-driven approach to crypto regulation. The House-passed bill would divide federal responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while setting requirements for exchanges, brokers, dealers, disclosures, and customer asset protection. Without such legislation, Hill argues, the crypto industry remains subject to unpredictable agency actions and court rulings. The 15% prediction-market probability underscores the steep climb ahead. Even with bipartisan committee support and a scheduled Senate vote, the bill must overcome a 60-vote cloture threshold, potential amendments, and a tight legislative calendar in an election year. What Is the Clarity Act? The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) is a comprehensive bill that establishes a federal regulatory framework for digital assets. It divides jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, sets rules for crypto exchanges, brokers, and dealers, and mandates customer asset protection and disclosure standards. What Are the Current Odds of the Clarity Act Passing in 2026? Polymarket traders give the bill a 15% chance of becoming law by Dec. 31, 2026. Kalshi’s longer-term contracts show a 30% probability before July 2027 and a 50% probability before January 2028, but those measure a broader range of possible outcomes. When Is the Next Senate Vote on the Clarity Act? A procedural cloture vote on H.R. 3633 is scheduled to ripen at 2:15 p.m. on Sept. 15. Cloture requires 60 votes. If successful, the Senate could proceed to debate and a final passage vote. How Does the Bill Divide SEC and Cftc Jurisdiction? The CLARITY Act would give the CFTC primary authority over digital commodities and the SEC authority over digital securities, with clear definitions to reduce regulatory overlap. The revised Senate version also includes provisions for DeFi oversight and network tokens. Why Are Prediction Markets Showing Such Low Enactment Odds? Traders are skeptical that the bill can complete the full legislative process - including Senate passage, House-Senate reconciliation, and presidential signature - by the end of 2026. The revised Senate language adds complexity, and the 60-vote threshold for cloture remains a significant hurdle in a divided Congress.