BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Barely Beat the S&P 500 After Putting Investors Through a 53% Crash

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has narrowly outperformed the S&P 500 since its January 2024 debut - but the razor-thin victory came after Bitcoin ETF holders endured a 53.30% peak-to-trough collapse, nearly three times deeper than the stock fund’s worst decline. Data through Aug. 31 shows IBIT posted a 67.74% total return since launch, beating Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO) by just 1.60 percentage points on a total-return basis that reinvests dividends. IBIT’s Narrow Win over the S&P 500 Since Jan. 11, 2024 IBIT, the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund launched by BlackRock, began trading on Jan. 11, 2024 and delivered a 67.74% total return through Aug. 31. Over the same comparison period, VOO returned 66.14%, leaving the Bitcoin fund ahead by 1.60 percentage points. The similarity in headline returns, however, masks dramatic differences in the routes the two funds took to get there. Fund / ETF Cumulative Total Return (Jan. 11, 2024 - Aug. 31) Maximum Peak-to-Trough Decline Drawdown Window iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) 67.74% 53.30% Oct. 6, 2025 - June 30, 2026 Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) 66.14% 18.69% Feb. 19 - April 8, 2025 Investors who bought both funds when IBIT launched therefore ended Aug. 31 with broadly similar cumulative returns. But Bitcoin ETF holders had to withstand a decline of more than half from the fund’s peak, while S&P 500 ETF investors faced a far shallower pullback. ‘Hard to Believe Ibit Is Beating Voo Since Inception’ - Eric Balchunas Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas flagged the unexpected result Sept. 1, pointing out how close the race remains despite Bitcoin’s violent swings. “Hard to believe IBIT is beating VOO since inception but it’s true,” Balchunas wrote, noting that the gap remained narrow. Balchunas compared IBIT’s path toward a roughly 70% gain to the El Toro roller coaster at Six Flags Great Adventure, while describing VOO’s advance as a walk in the park. He said the result was especially surprising given the bearish mood that dominated Bitcoin from October through July. The Brutal Math Behind IBIT’s 53.30% Maximum Drawdown IBIT’s worst peak-to-trough decline reached 53.30% between Oct. 6, 2025, and June 30, 2026. VOO’s maximum drawdown over the comparison period was 18.69%, recorded from Feb. 19 through April 8, 2025. The figures illustrate a core divergence between the two asset classes: IBIT drawdown depth: 53.30% VOO drawdown depth: 18.69% Ratio of drawdown severity: roughly 2.85-to-1 in favor of the S&P 500 ETF’s stability End result: nearly identical cumulative returns, radically different investor risk exposure Put simply, S&P 500 ETF holders experienced roughly one-third the pain of Bitcoin ETF holders, yet finished the stretch with virtually the same total return. Bitcoin’s Record Surge and the October-to-july Downturn The performance gap narrowed after Bitcoin surged to a record high and then gave back much of those gains during a prolonged downturn. The bearish stretch from October through July weighed heavily on IBIT’s price path, dragging the fund far below its peak before a recovery brought it back to parity with VOO. Bitcoin’s sharp retracement during that window tested the resolve of spot Bitcoin ETF holders and underscored how digital asset funds can deliver equity-like returns only after enduring severe volatility. Despite the turbulence, IBIT managed to hold onto its slim lead over the S&P 500 by the time the latest data was compiled. For market observers, the comparison highlights more than just a performance race between two funds. It shows that headline return figures, when taken alone, can obscure the true cost of reaching those returns. IBIT and VOO ended the period close to one another in cumulative performance, but the path investors traveled to get there could hardly have been more different. How Did BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Perform Compared with the S&P 500 Since Launch? IBIT returned 67.74% from its Jan. 11, 2024 debut through Aug. 31, while VOO returned 66.14% on a total-return basis. That left BlackRock’s Bitcoin fund ahead by just 1.60 percentage points. What Was IBIT’s Maximum Drawdown? IBIT’s largest peak-to-trough decline reached 53.30%, a drop that occurred between Oct. 6, 2025, and June 30, 2026. That is nearly three times deeper than the S&P 500 ETF’s worst drawdown over the same comparison window. What Was VOO’s Maximum Drawdown During the Same Period? Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF posted a maximum drawdown of 18.69%, recorded from Feb. 19 through April 8, 2025. The stock fund’s decline was far shallower than IBIT’s, even though both ended the period with similar cumulative returns. Who Is Eric Balchunas and What Did He Say About Ibit and Voo? Eric Balchunas is a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg. He wrote Sept. 1, “Hard to believe IBIT is beating VOO since inception but it’s true,” comparing IBIT’s volatile path to the El Toro roller coaster and VOO’s smoother advance to a walk in the park. What Factored into Bitcoin’s Prolonged Downturn from October Through July? Bitcoin surged to a record high and then surrendered a large portion of those gains during an extended bearish stretch from October through July. That downturn dragged IBIT into a 53.30% drawdown before the fund recovered enough to edge past the S&P 500 ETF in cumulative return.