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*Bitcoin has surged roughly 22% over the past month, but on-chain analytics firm Nansen warns that the rally lacks the structural confirmation needed to declare a new bull cycle. Senior research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard points to weak spot flows, divided whale positioning, and a recent wave of ETF withdrawals as key factors that have stopped him from calling a confirmed uptrend.** The 22% Recovery: Real but Not Yet a Cycle Turn Bitcoin’s price action since early August has delivered a sharp rebound, lifting the asset from below $65,000 to above $80,000 at its peak. However, Nansen’s Nicolai Søndergaard told crypto.news that the market structure, while improved, still exhibits several warning signs preventing a definitive bull-market declaration. “The recovery is real, but spot flows haven’t confirmed the bull market yet,” Søndergaard said. Positive daily and weekly trends suggest Bitcoin has moved past the weakest part of its previous decline. Yet more recent data have produced a less convincing picture, with BTC trading below its seven-day average while short-term momentum remains weak. Exchange Inflows and ETF Withdrawals Raise Red Flags Labelled entities tracked by Nansen sent a net 3,700 BTC to exchanges during the past week. Because exchange deposits can precede sales, the analyst included the increase among the factors limiting his confidence in the rally, although transfers to trading platforms do not always lead to immediate selling. At the same time, US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds also recorded around $236 million in withdrawals in the latest reading cited by Søndergaard. The reversal followed a period of stronger institutional activity during August, when ETF demand supported Bitcoin’s advance from below $65,000 to above $80,000. As previously reported by crypto.news, Bitcoin gained approximately 24% in August, delivering its strongest performance for the month since 2017. US spot ETFs attracted $1.92 billion during their strongest weekly run since October 2025, while $6.55 billion in short liquidations accumulated across two weeks. The later outflow does not erase the earlier buying, but Søndergaard said the market still needs consistent spot demand before the recovery can qualify as a lasting cycle turn. “That combination suggests the recovery still lacks consistent spot-flow confirmation,” he said, referring to ETF withdrawals, exchange deposits and weaker short-term momentum. Whale Positioning Shows Mixed Signals Large Bitcoin traders have not adopted one clear position during the recovery, according to Nansen’s data. Whales tracked across the firm’s monitored addresses remain slightly net long, while accounts trading large notional amounts on Hyperliquid hold heavy short exposure. Indicator Current Reading Signal Interpretation Bitcoin Monthly Gain ~22% Positive but not decisive Net Exchange Inflows (Weekly) 3,700 BTC Bearish - potential selling pressure US Spot ETF Flows (Latest) ~$236M in withdrawals Bearish - reversal of institutional buying Whale Position (Nansen Addresses) Slightly net long Mildly bullish Hyperliquid Large Traders Heavy short exposure Bearish - leveraged short bias Short-Term Momentum Below 7-day average Weak - lacks follow-through Background: August’s Rebound and Institutional Support The recent rally began in early August, driven by a combination of short squeezes and renewed institutional appetite. Bitcoin’s move from the $65,000 zone to an intra-month high above $80,000 was accompanied by the strongest ETF inflows since October 2025. The $1.92 billion weekly inflow and the $6.55 billion in short liquidations created a powerful upward momentum. However, the subsequent ETF withdrawal of $236 million and the emergence of exchange deposits suggest that the initial buying wave may have exhausted itself. Søndergaard emphasised that while the recovery is genuine, it lacks the “consistent spot-flow confirmation” necessary to be considered a sustainable bull market. Market Implications: What Nansen’s Analysis Means Nansen’s cautious stance comes amid a broader debate among analysts about whether Bitcoin’s current trajectory represents a new bull cycle or a relief rally within a larger correction. The firm’s data-driven approach, which relies on on-chain flows, exchange balances, and whale behaviour, provides a nuanced view that contrasts with more optimistic price forecasts. The mixed signals from whales and the lack of clear directional bias from large traders further complicate the outlook. Without a unified, sustained buying pressure from both spot markets and derivatives, the rally remains vulnerable to a pullback. What to Watch Next Traders and market participants will be closely monitoring weekly exchange inflow data and ETF flows for signs of renewed conviction. A sustained decline in exchange deposits, coupled with a return to net positive ETF inflows, could provide the missing confirmation Nansen is looking for. Conversely, continued withdrawals and rising exchange balances could signal that the recovery has stalled. What Happened with Bitcoin Today? Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard issued a bearish caution on Bitcoin’s recent rally, stating that spot flows, whale positioning, and ETF withdrawals have not yet confirmed a new bull market despite a 22% monthly gain. Is Bitcoin Still in a Bull Market According to Nansen? No, Nansen considers the current uptrend as an unconfirmed recovery. The firm cites weak spot flows, net exchange inflows of 3,700 BTC, and $236 million in ETF withdrawals as reasons to withhold a bull-market declaration. Why Did Nansen Say the Bull Market Is Unconfirmed? Nansen’s analyst pointed to a combination of factors: Bitcoin trading below its seven-day average, weak short-term momentum, a net inflow of BTC to exchanges, and a reversal in US spot ETF flows from positive to negative. What Are the Key Indicators Nansen Is Watching? The key indicators include net exchange inflows, spot ETF flows, whale positioning (both on-chain and on Hyperliquid), and short-term momentum relative to moving averages. All point to a lack of consistent spot-demand confirmation. Could Bitcoin Still Rally Higher Without Confirmation? Yes, Bitcoin could continue to rise, but Nansen’s data suggests that without a sustained increase in spot demand and a reduction in exchange deposits, any further gains may be vulnerable to reversals. The rally lacks the structural foundation of a confirmed bull cycle.
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- *Bitcoin has surged roughly 22% over the past month, but on-chain analytics firm Nansen warns that the rally lacks the structural confirmation needed to declare a new bull cycle. Senior research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard points to weak spot flows, divided whale positioning, and a recent wave of ETF withdrawals as key factors that have stopped him from calling a confirmed uptrend.**
The 22% Recovery: Real but Not Yet a Cycle Turn
Bitcoin’s price action since early August has delivered a sharp rebound, lifting the asset from below $65,000 to above $80,000 at its peak. However, Nansen’s Nicolai Søndergaard told crypto.news that the market structure, while improved, still exhibits several warning signs preventing a definitive bull-market declaration.
“The recovery is real, but spot flows haven’t confirmed the bull market yet,” Søndergaard said.
Positive daily and weekly trends suggest Bitcoin has moved past the weakest part of its previous decline. Yet more recent data have produced a less convincing picture, with BTC trading below its seven-day average while short-term momentum remains weak.
Exchange Inflows and ETF Withdrawals Raise Red Flags
Labelled entities tracked by Nansen sent a net 3,700 BTC to exchanges during the past week. Because exchange deposits can precede sales, the analyst included the increase among the factors limiting his confidence in the rally, although transfers to trading platforms do not always lead to immediate selling.
At the same time, US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds also recorded around $236 million in withdrawals in the latest reading cited by Søndergaard. The reversal followed a period of stronger institutional activity during August, when ETF demand supported Bitcoin’s advance from below $65,000 to above $80,000.
As previously reported by crypto.news, Bitcoin gained approximately 24% in August, delivering its strongest performance for the month since 2017. US spot ETFs attracted $1.92 billion during their strongest weekly run since October 2025, while $6.55 billion in short liquidations accumulated across two weeks.
The later outflow does not erase the earlier buying, but Søndergaard said the market still needs consistent spot demand before the recovery can qualify as a lasting cycle turn.
“That combination suggests the recovery still lacks consistent spot-flow confirmation,” he said, referring to ETF withdrawals, exchange deposits and weaker short-term momentum.
Whale Positioning Shows Mixed Signals
Large Bitcoin traders have not adopted one clear position during the recovery, according to Nansen’s data. Whales tracked across the firm’s monitored addresses remain slightly net long, while accounts trading large notional amounts on Hyperliquid hold heavy short exposure.
| Indicator |
Current Reading |
Signal Interpretation |
| Bitcoin Monthly Gain |
~22% |
Positive but not decisive |
| Net Exchange Inflows (Weekly) |
3,700 BTC |
Bearish – potential selling pressure |
| US Spot ETF Flows (Latest) |
~$236M in withdrawals |
Bearish – reversal of institutional buying |
| Whale Position (Nansen Addresses) |
Slightly net long |
Mildly bullish |
| Hyperliquid Large Traders |
Heavy short exposure |
Bearish – leveraged short bias |
| Short-Term Momentum |
Below 7-day average |
Weak – lacks follow-through |
Background: August’s Rebound and Institutional Support
The recent rally began in early August, driven by a combination of short squeezes and renewed institutional appetite. Bitcoin’s move from the $65,000 zone to an intra-month high above $80,000 was accompanied by the strongest ETF inflows since October 2025. The $1.92 billion weekly inflow and the $6.55 billion in short liquidations created a powerful upward momentum.
However, the subsequent ETF withdrawal of $236 million and the emergence of exchange deposits suggest that the initial buying wave may have exhausted itself. Søndergaard emphasised that while the recovery is genuine, it lacks the “consistent spot-flow confirmation” necessary to be considered a sustainable bull market.
Market Implications: What Nansen’s Analysis Means
Nansen’s cautious stance comes amid a broader debate among analysts about whether Bitcoin’s current trajectory represents a new bull cycle or a relief rally within a larger correction. The firm’s data-driven approach, which relies on on-chain flows, exchange balances, and whale behaviour, provides a nuanced view that contrasts with more optimistic price forecasts.
The mixed signals from whales and the lack of clear directional bias from large traders further complicate the outlook. Without a unified, sustained buying pressure from both spot markets and derivatives, the rally remains vulnerable to a pullback.
What to Watch Next
Traders and market participants will be closely monitoring weekly exchange inflow data and ETF flows for signs of renewed conviction. A sustained decline in exchange deposits, coupled with a return to net positive ETF inflows, could provide the missing confirmation Nansen is looking for. Conversely, continued withdrawals and rising exchange balances could signal that the recovery has stalled.
What Happened with Bitcoin Today?
Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard issued a bearish caution on Bitcoin’s recent rally, stating that spot flows, whale positioning, and ETF withdrawals have not yet confirmed a new bull market despite a 22% monthly gain.
Is Bitcoin Still in a Bull Market According to Nansen?
No, Nansen considers the current uptrend as an unconfirmed recovery. The firm cites weak spot flows, net exchange inflows of 3,700 BTC, and $236 million in ETF withdrawals as reasons to withhold a bull-market declaration.
Why Did Nansen Say the Bull Market Is Unconfirmed?
Nansen’s analyst pointed to a combination of factors: Bitcoin trading below its seven-day average, weak short-term momentum, a net inflow of BTC to exchanges, and a reversal in US spot ETF flows from positive to negative.
What Are the Key Indicators Nansen Is Watching?
The key indicators include net exchange inflows, spot ETF flows, whale positioning (both on-chain and on Hyperliquid), and short-term momentum relative to moving averages. All point to a lack of consistent spot-demand confirmation.
Could Bitcoin Still Rally Higher Without Confirmation?
Yes, Bitcoin could continue to rise, but Nansen’s data suggests that without a sustained increase in spot demand and a reduction in exchange deposits, any further gains may be vulnerable to reversals. The rally lacks the structural foundation of a confirmed bull cycle.
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